Supreme Courts’ Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. My model is far from perfect and every recent indicator is telling me it may not work well in 2022.įigure 2, which shows the prediction over time of the largest political futures market in the world ( PredictIt), offers a clue. In 2010, it predicted the Democrats would lose 51 seats - they lost 63. In 2014, the model predicted the Democrats would lose 30 seats - they lost 13. In 2018, my model predicted the GOP would lose 44 House seats - they lost 40. I am not surprised that my prediction model - heavily weighted towards economic conditions and presidential approval - should predict a House loss of 53 seats for the Democrats in 2022.īut that doesn’t mean my model is accurate. ![]() House after the 2022 midterms.īut I would remind everyone that Barack Obama had 46 percent presidential approval in August 2010 (and a fast-improving economy coming out of the 2008 world financial crisis) - three months prior to his party losing 63 House seats in the 2010 midterm elections. Obviously, this prediction puts me far outside current predictions from mainstream polling and political pundits, some suggesting the Democrats will maintain control of the U.S. Using August presidential approval data, my model predicts the Republicans will gain 53 seats in November (compared to my previous model’s prediction of a 55-seat gain). 0.69).įigure 1: Linear model of House seat gains/losses by President’s Party in Midterm Elections (1950 to 2018) House 2022 midterms did not change significantly from the previous model (see Figure 1) but, equally without surprise, it does not fit the data as well (adjusted R-squared 0.78 vs. Unsurprisingly, the prediction model for the U.S. The farther out in time your model can predict an event, the more useful your model.Īccordingly, I replaced the presidential approval variable that needed data from late October with one that used the president’s approval at the end of August (Gallup Poll). As they rightfully point out, in previous essays I have argued that there is little value in a prediction model that requires information right up to the point of the event itself. ![]() House 2022 midterm prediction - beyond that fact it predicts a GOP landslide win - saying that one of the independent variables in my linear model ( average presidential approval from August to October in the election year) required information close to Election Day. If we aren’t allowed to make mistakes, we will never make progress.Ī number readers complained about my U.S.
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